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Weak dollar makes for good 2004 sales

by Evangelos Otto Simos

SPECIAL TO EAGLE TRIBUNE on March 20, 2005  

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::  State Exports Massachusetts

With solid gains in foreign demand for locally made goods at the tail end of the year, state exports were much stronger overall during 2004 than in recent years.

Foreign sales of goods from Massachusetts companies rose $66.3 million, or 3.8 percent, in December to $1.797 billion, following a dip of 4.5 percent in November.

In a year-to-year comparison, exporters from the Bay State sold $283.5 million more goods than in December 2003, an increase of 18.7 percent.

For all of 2004, state exports soared by $3.1 billion over 2003 to $21.8 billion, the highest annual level on record.

 

Last year's sales abroad are the result of improvements in global economic conditions and the fall in the value of the dollar. A weaker currency makes locally produced goods less expensive and consequently more competitive in international markets.

Demand for manufactured goods drove overall sales from Massachusetts' exporting companies, accounting for 88 percent of all sales abroad.

Exports of manufactured goods significantly improved in December, up by 3.6 percent from the previous month to $1.575 billion. Exports of manufactured goods were $260.6 million higher than in December of 2003, a jump of 19.8 percent.

Was 2004 a good year for state manufacturers doing business abroad and, consequently, factory jobs tied to exports? For all of 2004, exports of made-in-Massachusetts goods surged by 17.3 percent from 2003 to $19.4 billion, an 18-year high. Nationally, exports of manufactured goods rose 11.3 percent to their highest annual level on record.
 

Exports of nonmanufactured goods went up 5.2 percent in December to $221.3 million. The nonmanufactured category consists of agricultural goods, mining products, and re-exports, which are foreign goods that entered the state as imports and then exported in substantially the same condition.

In a state perspective, how did Massachusetts exporters fare in selling their products abroad during 2004? The state's export performance translates to an annual growth rate in foreign sales of 16.9 percent for the entire year, compared to a gain of 11.7 percent in 2003. As a result, Massachusetts ranked 18th among the 50 states in export growth in 2004.

U.S. exports rose by 13.2 percent during 2004, about three times faster than in 2003, hitting the highest annual level on record. The combined volume of exports from the world's 23 major industrial countries is estimated to have jumped by 15.6 percent in 2004. Thus, Massachusetts exporters performed better than all industrial countries and the nation in export growth during 2004.

Forward-looking indicators signal that the international economic outlook -- vital to export-related jobs in Massachusetts -- is likely to improve over the next three quarters.
 

New Hampshire

Exports of goods from New Hampshire's companies rose $3.9 million, or 2 percent, in December to $202.1 million. Foreign sales were $18.2 million more than in December of 2003 and registered the third highest monthly level since July 2001.

State exports increased by $350 million over 2003, to $2.3 billion for 2004.

Growth in December's foreign sales was not broad based. Exports of manufactured goods -- which accounted for 80 percent of all sales abroad -- rose in December by 3.3 percent from the previous month to $161.7 million, adjusted for seasonal variation.

Last year was a good year for state manufacturers doing business abroad and, consequently, factory jobs tied to exports. For all of 2004, exports of New Hampshire goods surged by 17.6 percent -- about 6 percent above the national average -- to $1.9 billion.

Exports of nonmanufactured goods went down 2.9 percent in December to $40.5 million.

New Hampshire's exporters fared better than the national average (a rise of 13.2 percent) in export growth during 2004. In fact, they did better than the average export growth in all industrial countries (up 15.6 percent) .

 

New Hampshire's overall foreign sales jumped at an annual growth rate of 18.1 percent for 2004, which is also five times better than the state export growth of 3.7 percent recorded in 2003. As a result, New Hampshire was the 15th highest ranked state in export growth last year.

 


  Evangelos Otto Simos, chief economist at the consulting and research firm Infometrica Inc., is editor for International Affairs in the Journal of Business Forecasting and professor and chair of the Economics department at the University of New Hampshire.

Simos can be reached at: eosimos@infometrica.com

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