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The beneficial effects of a weaker
dollar were not present in the recent New Hampshire export data.
Foreign sales from local companies waned slightly in February in
the face of a softening in demand for goods.
Conventional wisdom maintains that a weaker currency will boost
future foreign sales as state exports become more affordable
overseas.
But exports of goods made in the Granite State edged slightly
down by 1.2 percent in February to $191.5 million, adjusted for
seasonal variation. However, in comparison to a year ago, New
Hampshire exporters experienced gains. State companies sold
$11.9 million, or 6.6 percent, more goods than in February of
2004.
February’s performance was fueled by trade in manufactured
goods, which accounted for 79 percent of all state exports.
Shipments abroad from New Hampshire factories decreased in
February by 2.1 percent from the previous month to $151.4
million.
The dominance of exports of manufactured goods in New Hampshire
is a major source of export-related local jobs. Foreign orders
translate into increased production, which results in more
hiring.
In February, 10,200 manufacturing jobs were directly related to
exports from New Hampshire. These jobs were in state
manufacturing plants producing the final goods shipped overseas.
In addition, there were 6,400 manufacturing jobs indirectly
related to the manufacturing of final exports.
By comparison, in February of 2004, 17,700 jobs were tied to
exports.
New Hampshire ranked 23rd in generation of export-related jobs
in manufacturing industries among the 50 states. For the country
as a whole, U.S. exports of goods, seasonally adjusted, edged up
slightly by 0.1 percent in February to a record level of $71.2
billion.
The New York based Economic Research Department of the Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi conducts a monthly foreign trade survey.
In the most recent survey — conducted in February — 62 percent
of the respondents expect exports to be higher over the next
three months, a substantial improvement from 24 percent in the
previous survey. More important, none of the participants
expects a decline in exports over the next three months in the
latest survey, compared with 24 percent anticipating a decline
in January.
“Export activity is expected to pick up over the next three
months,” concluded Ellen Beeson, director of the Economic
Research Department at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. Their index
of future export conditions hit a trend high in February.
Maine exports plunge
Maine exports plunged by 17.7 percent in February to $141.1
million, adjusted for seasonal variation.
Manufactured goods, which accounted for 71 percent of all state
exports, went down sharply in February by 19.4 percent from the
previous month to $99.5 million. Exports of non-manufactured
goods also went down 13.5 percent in February.
Maine ranked 41st in generation of export-related jobs in
manufacturing industries among the 50 states.
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Evangelos Otto Simos, chief economist at the consulting and research firm Infometrica Inc., is editor for International Affairs in the Journal of Business Forecasting and professor
and chair of the Economics department at the University of New Hampshire.
Simos can be reached at: eosimos@infometrica.com
Copyright © 2005 Foster's Online
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