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Recent economic statistics have
confirmed what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has termed a “soft
patch” in the U.S. economy in the second quarter that caused a slowdown in
adding workers in the payrolls.
New jobs creation, especially in the manufacturing sector, also depends to a
great extent on the global economy as, on the average, one in every five
factory workers is tied to foreign shipments at the national level.
The latest international economic indicators have provided evidence that the
global economy also appears to have entered a “global soft patch” this
summer, leading to a decline in the demand for made-in-the USA goods.
An international survey conducted by the Munich-based Ifo Institute for
Economic Research, in cooperation with the International Chamber of Commerce
in Paris, has indicated a slowing in global economic activity during the
summer.
Ifo’s worldwide quarterly index of current economic conditions — based on
responses from 1,178 business experts in 89 countries — edged up 2 percent
in the second quarter.
That follows a big 22 percent surge in the first quarter and a 13 percent
jump in the last quarter of 2003.
U.S exporters felt the global soft patch, as their shipments abroad cooled
off in June after a big jump in May.
The nation’s exports, adjusted for seasonal variation, dropped 6.5 percent
in June, to $64.2 billion, from May’s all-time record level of $68.7
billion. |
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Silver State
How did Nevada exporting companies fare in June?
Slower economic growth in the rest of the world results in weaker demand for
made-in-Nevada goods and, undoubtedly, is causing exports to slow.
State shipments abroad declined $45.8 million from May to June, or 19.2
percent, to $192.4 million, adjusted for seasonal variation.
Despite June’s pullback, foreign sales remained at relatively high levels.
Compared with last year, Silver State exporters sold $20.4 million, or 11.8
percent, more goods. And, June’s monthly reading was the fourth-highest this
year.
A truer picture of the strength in state’s exports will emerge only with the
elimination of other nonseasonal random occurrences.
The resulting indicator smoothes out the volatile monthly fluctuations.
Consequently, it is related closely to full-time jobs, as abnormal levels of
production are short-lived and are met by changes in temporary employment
and overtime.
If one ignores special monthly factors, one sees an underlying export
picture that is consistent with a continuation of the upswing in Nevada’s
foreign sales and export-related jobs.
The “underlying export trend” in foreign sales edged up 0.8 percent in June,
the fourth straight monthly gain.
Across the board
June’s decline in state exports was broad based.
Manufacturers’ foreign shipments from Nevada companies went down in June.
Exports of manufactured goods dropped 17.5 percent from the previous month,
to $152.7 million, adjusted for seasonal variation.
Manufactured goods accounted for 79.4 percent of all state exports in June.
Compared with June 2003, this month’s shipments abroad from state factories
were $16.7 million higher.
Nevada’s manufacturers were better off in June than a year ago. Exports of
non-manufactured goods totaled $39.7 million in June, a 25.3 percent
decrease from May.
This group of shipments abroad consists of agricultural goods, mining
products and re-exports — foreign merchandise that entered the state as
imports and is exported in substantially the original condition.
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Evangelos Otto Simos, chief economist at the consulting and research firm Infometrica Inc., is editor for International Affairs in the Journal of Business Forecasting and professor
and chair of the Economics department at the University of New Hampshire.
Simos can be reached at: eosimos@infometrica.com
Copyright © 2004 The Reno Gazette-Journal
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