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N.H., Maine exports pinched by global slowdown

by Evangelos Otto Simos

SPECIAL to Foster's Sunday Citizen on 9/5/2004  

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::  State Exports New Hampshire

Recent economic statistics have confirmed what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has termed a "soft patch" in the U.S. economy in the second quarter.



Slower economic growth in the rest of the world results in weaker demand for New Hampshire and Maine goods, and is causing exports to slow in both states.

Following a 14.6 percent jump in May, shipments abroad from New Hampshire companies declined $25.3 million, or 12.7 percent, in June from the previous month to $174.3 million.

Despite June’s pullback, foreign sales remained at relatively high levels. Compared with last year, exporters from the Granite State sold $22.1 million, or 14.5 percent, more goods than in June 2003.

June’s decline in overall state exports was broad-based. Exports of manufactured goods dropped 7.3 percent from the previous month, to $147 million.

Manufactured goods accounted for 84.3 percent of all state exports in June. Compared with June of last year, this month’s shipments abroad from New Hampshire factories were $22.6 million higher.

Exports of non-manufactured goods totaled $27.3 million in June, a 33.4 percent decrease from May. This group of shipments abroad consists of agricultural goods, mining products, and re-exports.

In Maine, international sales from that state’s companies plunged by 10.9 percent in June, after a 5.5 percent rise in May.

The $22.3 million decline from the previous month brought Maine sales abroad to $181.6 million in June.

However, compared with last year, Maine exports also showed a solid recovery in foreigners’ demand for locally made goods.

In June of this year, exporters shipped abroad $11.4 million, or 6.7 percent, more goods than in June of 2003.

All major exporting industries felt a global decline in demand for made-in-Maine products. Exports of manufactured goods dropped 11.2 percent in June from the previous month, to $133.5 million.

Manufactured goods exports accounted for 73.5 percent of all state exports in June. Compared with last year, shipments abroad from state factories still were $8.4 million higher than in June of 2003. Consequently, on an annual basis, Maine’s manufacturers are seeing their international sales recovering from last year’s low levels.

Exports of non-manufactured goods declined $5.4 million, or 10.1 percent, in June to $48.1 million, adjusted for seasonal variation.
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New jobs creation, especially in the manufacturing sector, depends to a great extent on the global economy as on average one in every five factory worker jobs is tied to foreign shipments.

An international survey conducted by the Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris has indicated a slowing in global economic activity during the summer. Ifo’s worldwide quarterly index of current economic conditions — based on responses from 1,178 business experts in 89 countries — edged up 2 percent in the second quarter after a big 22 percent surge in the first quarter of 2004, and a 13 percent jump in the last quarter of 2003.

The nation’s exports, adjusted for seasonal variation, dropped 6.5 percent in June to $64.2 billion from May’s all-time record level of $68.7 billion
 


  Evangelos Otto Simos, chief economist at the consulting and research firm Infometrica Inc., is editor for International Affairs in the Journal of Business Forecasting and professor and chair of the Economics department at the University of New Hampshire.

Simos can be reached at: eosimos@infometrica.com

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