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With solid gains in foreign demand for locally made goods at the tail end of
the the year, state exports were much stronger overall during 2004 than in
recent years.
Foreign sales of goods from Vermont's companies, adjusted for seasonal
variation, surged $32.2 million, or 12.4 percent, in December to $290.8
million, following a dip of 21.2 percent in November. December's reading was
the third highest monthly level since February 2001.
For the full 2004 calendar year, state exports increased by $640 million
from 2003 to $3.3 billion. Last year's sales abroad are the result of the
undergoing improvement in global economic conditions and the fall in the
value of the dollar. A weaker currency makes locally produced goods less
expensive and consequently more competitive in international markets.
Demand for manufactured goods drove overall sales from Vermont's exporting
companies. Last December, foreign shipments from state factories accounted
for 67 percent of all sales abroad.
Exports of manufactured goods rose sharply in December by 23.9 percent from
the previous month to $195 million, adjusted for seasonal variation. At last
December's mark, exports of manufactured goods were $8.5 million, or 4.2
percent, lower than in December of 2003.
Was 2004 a good year for state manufacturers doing business abroad and,
consequently, factory jobs tied to exports? For all of 2004, exports of
made-in-Vermont goods surged by 33.2 percent from 2003 to $2.2 billion. For
the nation, exports of manufactured goods rose 11.3 percent to their highest
annual level on record.
Exports of non-manufactured goods went down 5.4 percent in December to $95.7
million, also adjusted for seasonal variation. This group of shipments
abroad consists of agricultural goods, mining products, and re-exports which
are foreign goods that entered the state as imports and are exported in
substantially the same condition as when imported.
In a state perspective, how did Vermont's exporters fare in selling their
products abroad during 2004? The state's export performance translates to an
annual growth rate in foreign sales of 24.4 percent for the entire year
2004, compared to a gain of 4.2 percent in 2003. As a result, Vermont ranked
sixth among the fifty states in export growth in 2004.
In a global perspective, US exports of goods rose by 13.2 percent during
2004, about three times faster than in 2003, hitting the highest annual
level on record. For the world's major twenty-three industrial countries,
the combined volume of their exports is estimated to have jumped by 15.6
percent in 2004. Vermont exporters outperformed all industrial countries and
the nation in export growth during 2004.
What is the global economic outlook for 2005 which will determine
international trade and ultimately the demand for goods made in Vermont?
Forward-looking indicators signal that the international economic outlook -
vital to export-related jobs in Vermont - is expected to improve over the
next three quarters.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a
highly-respected Paris-based thinktank whose members include the world's 30
richest countries, reported this month that the group's composite leading
economic indicator shows improved performance in its recent reading.
In particular, OECD's early warning indicator for the most advanced
countries in the world - which tracks economic conditions nine months in
advance - rose again in December. More important, the indicator's annual
growth rate - designed to provide early signals of changing directions in
global economic activity between expansions and slowdowns accelerated for a
second month in a row.
These new numbers confirm the general view that the global economic
expansion will continue in 2005.
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